2019 Novel Coronavirus (CoVID-19): Part XXVI
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV (first named); COVID-2019 (later named
disease); SARS-CoV-2 (final name of the virus causing COVID-2019), COVID-2019
September 27, 2021 update Part 26
Paul Herscu ND, MPH
Entering the third phase of this pandemic (Part 5 of 5)
Hello and welcome. It has been a while since I have written. We have just now arrived at the third phase, of my understanding of the 5 phase stages of this pandemic. I imagine many of you are feeling frightened, angry and frustrated, as well as simply confused. Things have not gone as well as they should have, as we are experiencing the next increase of incidence in the USA. The question is how to proceed from where we are. I am bombarded by questions from family, friends, patients and students. I would like to discuss several major aspects to help the general discourse. This is a difficult task as at this time as there are two paths, one for those who have been vaccinated and one for those who have not been vaccinated. As a result, I would like to break down the writing into 5 separate posts. They are:
1. A piece for those
who have been vaccinated
2. A piece for those who have not been vaccinated
3. A piece on effective natural therapies
4. A piece on other pharmaceuticals
5. A short recap
Herein, I begin with the last piece, a short recap.
As I write this, I think about last night, when Amy and I and some friends were making homemade pizza, outside on the deck, when one of them said that she felt so sad that her friend’s brother, in his early 60’s, suddenly, unexpectedly, was in the ICU, on a machine, unconscious, fighting for his life with this infection. At the same time, I thought about all the anxiety that exists, still, and the weariness, confusion, anger, and pretty much any difficult emotion you can think of. So, perhaps to cheer you up, or rather to shed some light on what the future holds, I wanted to start with a statement that I have been telling my patients. And even though it sometimes raises eyebrows, please hear me out here. I would like to describe a sort of framework for your consideration, that I think will help explain the news as it unfolds over the next months.
The pandemic will be over sometime between middle December to early May! I say this with some confidence, so let me explain why. As we recognized from the start, this germ is going to be with us for the foreseeable future. This concept has not changed. But how do we go from where we are now to a more normal life when the pandemic designation will come to an end. I would like to describe how this is going to occur and what to expect. During this time frame, at some point we as a species will decide that the pandemic is over. Yes, there will be different justifications, here or there, but basically we are going to call it over. This means the mandates, rules, restrictions, as a species, will stop. This has to do with the numbers vaccinated, and the numbers who survived the infection and developed natural immunity. The more vaccinated, the closer we are to the December date. If we stop vaccinations completely, the date gets pushed to May. But basically, enough people will have enough immunity to the bug, in whatever mutation arrived at, we are going to stop calling this a pandemic.