Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Ebolavirus 2014 Outbreak - #5

Ebolavirus 2014 Outbreak
October 31, 2014 Update #5
Paul Herscu, ND, DHANP, MPH
Herscu Laboratory


I would like to begin with the main points. First, it should become clearer that neither North America, nor Europe nor the majority of Africa will have an epidemic of EVD, so that chatter will stop. Second, it should shortly become obvious to everyone that the viral transmission has not become airborne, and that confusion will stop as well. And third, it’s becoming clearer that the reasons things got so bad in the first place have to do with poor health care infrastructure, rather than the virus itself. Sadly this widespread problem is deep and wide and will need our attention for years to come.

Many countries are negotiating around quarantine versus isolation versus quarantine in place versus revoking travel permits. This is true in Africa where many countries have forbidden travel into their countries for those arriving from impacted countries; Australia took the most extreme version similar to the advice I last posted, i.e., no one from an effected country allowed in unless they have completed a 21 day quarantine in the country of origin.  In the USA the military has taken a similar approach and in our civil society there has been much debate and evolution of rules. What is clear is that as the majority of ban of travel is in force around the world, travel on public transportation and in public areas is now forbidden in most every place, and given the timing of developing the infection and given the vigilance in place, I now consider this potential epidemic over for most of the world.