Ebolavirus 2014 Outbreak
October 31, 2014
Update #5
Paul Herscu, ND, DHANP, MPH
Herscu Laboratory
DON’T
PANIC! WE’RE NEARLY THERE (FOR THE DEVELOPED WORLD, AT LEAST)
I would like to begin with the main points. First, it should become
clearer that neither North America, nor Europe nor the majority of Africa will
have an epidemic of EVD, so that chatter will stop. Second, it should shortly
become obvious to everyone that the viral transmission has not become airborne,
and that confusion will stop as well. And third, it’s becoming clearer that the
reasons things got so bad in the first place have to do with poor health care
infrastructure, rather than the virus itself. Sadly this widespread problem is
deep and wide and will need our attention for years to come.
Many countries are negotiating around quarantine versus isolation
versus quarantine in place versus revoking travel permits. This is true in
Africa where many countries have forbidden travel into their countries for
those arriving from impacted countries; Australia took the most extreme version
similar to the advice I last posted, i.e., no one from an effected country
allowed in unless they have completed a 21 day quarantine in the country of
origin. In the USA the military has
taken a similar approach and in our civil society there has been much debate
and evolution of rules. What is clear is that as the majority of ban of travel
is in force around the world, travel on
public transportation and in public areas is now forbidden in most every
place, and given the timing of developing the infection and given the vigilance
in place, I now consider this potential epidemic over for most of the
world.
