(2019-nCoV (first named); COVID-2019 (later named disease); SARS-CoV-2 (final name of the virus causing COVID-2019):
March 4, 2020 update Part 6
Paul Herscu ND, MPH
Third, the ungrounded and inaccurate homeopathic treatment protocols developed by others are not useful. Please do not forward these. An accurate set of guidelines will be developed, but the current recommendations are not based on patient symptoms and are actually simply wrong.
Fourth, regarding the number of cases being reported at this moment, we have a sort of problem understanding the true numbers in the USA. Specifically, the reason has to do with the lack of proper testing, as I mentioned in the very first update last month. That said, the number being used right now for cases is 158 and 11 deaths. But I think this has to be completely wrong if we have 11 deaths, and we use either the mortality rate that WHO is using, around 2 percent or more, or the number I am using, 0.5%, mortality rate. If WHO are right, then we should have around 550 cases, and if I am right then the actual number is really around 2,200 active cases. But in both instances the incidence number is larger than the described 158. (And just as a reminder, as you can read in the first post, when China was describing cases of around 10,000-20,000, we said the number was closer to 75,000, which is what they finally acknowledged.) I think the actual number in the US is somewhere between 550-2,200, right now. One reason we do not know the actual number is we have not had a true sample study done in an area to see how many actually carry the virus but are not symptomatic. For example, in the USA we have tested less than 500 people. In South Korea, they tested well over 100,000, or put in another way, in the USA we have tested 1 in a million, whereas in South Korea they tested 2,000 per million, a stark difference. We need both better testing and at the same time more complete, rapid testing.